Towards Fossil-based Electricity Systems with Integrated Co2 Capture: Implications of an Illustrative Long-term Technology Policy

This paper examines the role of fossil-fired power plants equipped with carbon capture systems in a long-term scenario of the global energy system. Within this framework, the impacts of a technology policy is illustrated that requires over time an increasing fraction of fossil-fired power generation to incorporate carbon capture technologies leading in the long run to a virtually carbon-free electricity sector. We examine the costs and the potential contribution that such a policy could offer in reducing global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions and highlight some of the technologies that may play a key role in doing so. The analysis is carried out with the energy-systems optimization model MESSAGE considering endogenous technological learning for carbon capture technologies, such that they experience cost reductions as a function of accumulated capacity installations. In the context of a world where fossil-based power systems face pressure to evolve into cleaner configurations in the long term, coalfired Integrated Gasification Combined-Cycle (IGCC) plants and gas-fired Combined-Cycle (NGCC) plants emerge as flexible, complementary technology choices that, while being attractive for electricity generation, could allow an efficient and cost-effective capture of carbon.